Saturday, October 6, 2012

Is the recent report on unemployment good news for Obama?



The news is in that the Democrats have been waiting for . . .The jobless rate fell in September to 7.8% from 8.1%. Wild celebrations are planned by the Obama folk. But here's the real news--the job market is still terrible. So let's see the entire picture of jobs today.

First, a little history. Democrats are celebrating the decline in the jobless rate, which only shows how their standards have changed since President Obama entered the White House. In 2004, they were lambasting George W. Bush for a September jobless rate that was 5.4%. 

How many new jobs were created last month? A paltry 114,000. Job growth for 2012 has averaged 146,000 a month, which is down from 153,000 in 2011.  So where's this recovery?

The reality is that more than three years into this weakest of economic recoveries, 12.1 million Americans are still out of work—nearly 23 million by the broader definition that includes those who have stopped looking or can't find full time work—and the labor participation rate is still down to 1981 levels at 63.6%. Seems like little cause for celebration. 

Here are more discouraging statistics, compliments of The Wall Street Journal. Manufacturing employment fell again (down 38,000 in the last two months), further dampening one of the few bright spots in this recovery. A still abysmal 40.1% of the unemployed in America have been jobless for six months or more. Such a job market is anemic by any historic measure for this stage in an expansion and reflects continuing slow GDP growth in the 1%-2% range. 

Then there are those who work, but they can only find part-time jobs. The number of part-time workers for economic reasons grew to 8.6 million in September from 7.7 million in March. It's tough to pay the mortgage, energy, medical and grocery bills with a 20-hour-a-week job. The job market has been bad for so long that people are settling for any paycheck they can get. 

Campaigning on Friday, Mr. Obama touted the latest jobs report and repeated his refrain that the economy has created five million jobs during this recovery. Here's the catch. While the numbers are correct, in a normal recovery we would have nearly twice that number, and the economy is still about 4.5 million jobs short of where it was in 2007. In the big picture we have fewer people working than when he took office.

He also didn't mention that those jobs aren't paying all that well because real median household income is down $3,040 since the recession ended in June 2009. So, the economy is growing but real incomes are still falling. Mr. Obama claims to be a helper of the middle class, but he's presided over the worst economy for average workers since Jimmy Carter. 

By the way, does anyone else see an amazing set of similarities between Carter and Obama (I know this wasn't the topic). They both came in as outsiders, they oversaw a downward economy, they were surprised in their first debate by their opponent's ability,  . . .

Mr. Obama is promising four more years of the same policies he's pursued in his first term, except that this time he says he really will raise taxes immediately in 2013. Anyone who wants the same job creation should vote for him.

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